Forecasting + Target Probability

Plan targets with confidence, not guesswork

Forecast revenue, orders, and AOV with uncertainty bands, then compute probability of hitting monthly targets. Uses local synced history and deterministic simulation in PHP.

Forecasting dashboard with p20-p80 uncertainty band and target hit probability gauge

What this unlocks

Clear forecast ranges

Track expected outcomes with p20/p50/p80 bands, not single-point guesses.

Target hit probability

See the chance of reaching monthly goals and how much per day is still needed.

Better planning rhythm

Connect forecasts to actions when probability drops below safe thresholds.

Screens

Forecast band

Actual vs forecast with p20-p80 uncertainty range.

Forecast chart with uncertainty band and trend line

Target probability

Probability gauge and needed-per-day guidance for monthly targets.

Monthly target probability gauge with required daily pace

How it works (no Magento module)

  1. Connect via Magento API credentials

    No extra extension footprint inside Magento is required.

  2. We sync orders and inventory

    Forecast inputs are built from existing synced daily aggregates.

  3. We compute insights and alerts

    Background jobs run Holt-Winters/fallback forecast and target simulation.

FAQ

Do you need external ML services?

No. The model is local and deterministic with transparent parameters.

What horizon is included?

Starter 30d, Growth 60d, Pro 90d (trial preview is shorter).

Can I override targets?

Yes, you can compute probability using saved targets or manual override values.

Forecast like an operator, not a spreadsheet

Growth and Pro include longer horizons and stronger planning controls.